Markets are closed this weekend, which gives everyone two days to rest before one of the most consequential weeks of the fall. Next week brings a full slate of economic data, a handful of notable earnings reports, and one release that could decide whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in October. Here is what is on the calendar and why each piece matters.
Monday, September 28: a quiet start. No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled, according to Scotiabank’s economic calendar. The notable corporate event is Jefferies Financial Group, which reports earnings in the afternoon, with analysts expecting about $1.00 per share on $2.20 billion in revenue, per MarketBeat. Jefferies is often read as an early signal for Wall Street’s dealmaking mood. Scotiabank MarketBeat
Tuesday, September 29: housing and confidence. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for July arrives at 9:00 a.m. ET, followed by consumer confidence for September at 10:00 a.m. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.2% and mortgage rates following it higher, every housing data point is a read on whether high borrowing costs are finally cooling the market. Scotiabank
Wednesday, September 30: the data deluge. The ADP employment report lands at 8:15 a.m., the private-sector preview of Friday’s official jobs numbers. At 8:30 a.m., three releases hit at once: the third estimate of second-quarter GDP, personal income and spending for August (which includes the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), and wholesale inventories. The Chicago PMI follows at 9:45 a.m. After the close, Micron Technology reports earnings on AI memory demand. This is also quarter-end, when big funds rebalance portfolios, which can add choppiness that has nothing to do with fundamentals. LiteFinance
Thursday, October 1: factories and Nike. The ISM manufacturing PMI is the morning’s main event. On earnings, McCormick reports in the morning and Nike in the afternoon, with analysts expecting $0.44 per share on $11.34 billion in revenue. Nike’s results are a bellwether for the global consumer, and investors will listen for what tariffs and freight costs are doing to margins. MarketBeat
Friday, October 2: the jobs report. The September nonfarm payrolls report is the week’s centerpiece, and arguably the most important data release of the fall. Here is why. The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point in September and signaled a further increase was possible. With recent purchasing managers’ surveys showing unexpectedly strong private-sector activity, money markets recently priced a 64% chance of a back-to-back hike at the Fed’s October 28 meeting, according to LSEG data cited by Dow Jones Newswires. TradingView/Dow Jones
“There are two key reports that will largely determine what the Fed decides to do, with the first, the September jobs report, due on Friday,” ING economist James Knightley wrote in a note. The second is September inflation data, due October 14. The eurozone also releases September inflation data on Friday, which matters for global bond markets living through the same yield spike. TradingView/Dow Jones
One more thing to watch over the weekend: the U.S.-Iran talks. Friday’s stock rally was built on reports of a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If weekend headlines confirm progress, oil could fall further and extend the market’s good mood into Monday. If talks break down again, crude could spike right back, and the week’s careful plans go out the window. In a market this sensitive to oil, the weekend news matters as much as the calendar.
