As of 8:30am CT on Thursday, September 24, today is one of those days where the calendar itself is the story. Between data, speeches, a bond auction, and blockbuster earnings, the market will not have much time to sit still. Here is what is on deck and why each item matters for your money.
8:30am ET: Weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department is expected to report initial claims likely rose to 201,000 for the week ended September 19, up from a prior 196,000, with continuing claims seen rising by 15,000 to 1.745 million. In a week when hot business-activity data convinced traders the Fed may hike again, any hint that the labor market is loosening (or refusing to) will feed straight into October rate-hike odds. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks at 8:30am ET at the Economic Club of Washington, DC, right as the data lands, so watch for his live reaction.
10:00am ET: New home sales for August. Economists expect sales to edge up to roughly 600,000 to 615,000 units, from 607,000 in July. This one is personal for a lot of households. The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set mortgage rates, just hit its highest level since 2007, and Wednesday’s five-year auction saw weak demand (Reuters). For anyone house-hunting, today’s data will show whether buyers are powering through punishing rates or stepping back.
Four Fed speakers. In an era when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has scrapped specific forward guidance (“the time for specific, very direct forward guidance is over,” as New York Fed President John Williams put it (Barron’s)), individual voices carry outsized weight. The Fed presidents of New York, Richmond, Cleveland, and Philadelphia are all due to speak today. Williams told a London conference early Thursday that another rate hike this year is a “reasonable” expectation (Reuters). If the others echo him, the 75% October-hike odds could go even higher.
A $44 billion 7-year Treasury auction. After Wednesday’s poorly received five-year auction sent yields jumping across the curve (Reuters), today’s sale is a real test of appetite for U.S. debt. Weak demand would push yields higher still, and every extra basis point on the 10-year eventually shows up in mortgage, auto, and credit card rates.
Also on the data slate: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September (prior at 17), EIA weekly natural gas storage, U.S. international investment position and transactions, and foreign central bank holdings (Wall Street Journal).
Earnings to watch. Costco reports after the closing bell in the week’s most-watched earnings event. Analysts expect fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $94.85 billion, up 10% year over year, and earnings of $6.52 per share, up from $5.87 a year ago, with comparable store sales up nearly 9% and the membership base at roughly 84.7 million, up from about 81 million a year ago. As a bellwether for middle- and upper-income spending, Costco’s numbers will be parsed for how rate hikes and energy costs are hitting household budgets. Darden Restaurants and BlackBerry also report today.
Premarket stock movers. Meta shares are down about 2% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s Connect keynote last night, where he unveiled new smart glasses styles, an audio-only version following criticism that camera glasses might record others without consent, and a wearable “Muse Charm” pendant for the Muse AI agent. A classic sell-the-news reaction after a pre-event rally.
Why it matters: days like this are when the market writes its own homework for the next month. The data decides whether the economy is running hot enough to justify another hike. The speakers decide how worried the Fed is about inflation. The auction decides how much appetite remains for U.S. debt. And Costco decides whether the consumer is bending or breaking.
What to watch next: the 8:30am data drops and Barkin’s remarks land first, then the bond auction results in the afternoon, and finally Costco after the bell. My take: the single most market-moving line today may not come from any number, but from a Fed president hinting that October is live. Friday brings durable goods and the final consumer sentiment read to close out the week.
