Friday’s calendar is thin but consequential, the way a short week of doctor’s appointments can still change your whole year. As of 8:30am CT, here’s everything that can move your money today, in order of appearance.
First up at 8:30am ET: August durable goods orders, the monthly read on how much businesses are spending on big-ticket equipment. Consensus expects headline orders to fall 0.5% after a 1.1% surge the prior month, with core orders (excluding volatile transportation) expected to rise 0.5% versus 0.4% previously. One source sees the headline number landing around -0.3%, but the direction is what matters: after July’s burst, economists expect a breather (Kalkine). This report doubles as a check on the business investment story that bond markets are so nervous about. If capital spending holds up while the 10-year sits above 5%, it feeds the “resilient economy, higher for longer” narrative that powered this week’s bond selloff.
At 9:20am ET, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks, and at 10:00am ET comes the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for September. Consensus sits near 47.5, barely changed from the prior 47.8, with inflation expectations holding near 4.6%. Read that twice: consumer sentiment in the high 40s is historically miserable territory, the kind of number that used to predict recessions all by itself. And yet the consumer keeps spending, Costco just posted a blowout, and jobless claims sit near 57-year lows. That gap between how Americans feel and how they act is one of the great mysteries of this economy, and today’s number is its next chapter. Watch the inflation expectations line especially: with oil back above $100 and mortgage rates topping 7% for the first time in over a year, households are living the inflation the data keeps insisting is fading.
At 2:00pm ET, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks. Her remarks carry extra weight because, as XTB’s economic calendar notes, the Fed’s pre-meeting blackout period begins Saturday, making this one of the final chances for officials to shape expectations before they go quiet. The backdrop: the Fed hiked rates in September, its projections pointed to another increase before year-end, and officials remain divided over how much more tightening 2027 might need (FXEmpire). Markets are desperate for any hint of whether the hiking cycle pauses, and every speaker this week has been parsed like scripture.
On the corporate side, the earnings calendar is essentially empty. No major reports are scheduled for Friday, after a Thursday dominated by Costco’s closely watched results. The Kansas City Fed services survey also lands today (ZeroHedge’s weekly calendar), a quieter but useful regional check.
And the geopolitical wildcards keep ticking. Xi Jinping is in Washington for talks with President Trump, though beneath the fanfare there is scant evidence of breakthroughs on AI, trade, Taiwan, or the Iran war. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian negotiators continue to explore a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade. Any Friday headline from either table could redraw the weekend’s risk picture before the open.
Our take: this Friday is a sentiment Friday. The data will confirm what we already suspect, business spending is fine, consumers feel awful and spend anyway. The speakers will confirm what we already suspect, the Fed isn’t done and won’t say when it is. The real market-moving potential sits in the diplomatic rooms, where a single headline on Hormuz or Beijing could make today’s gentle premarket rally look very different by Monday.
