As of 8:30am CT on Wednesday, September 30, relief was visible on the screens. Dow futures rose 0.3%, as did S&P 500 futures, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.3%, according to Investor’s Business Daily. The turn happened almost the instant the morning’s inflation data hit the tape. Before that print, futures had sat nearly motionless: at 5:27am ET, Dow E-minis were up just 95 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down a hair, Reuters reported.
The 10-year Treasury yield, the quiet benchmark behind mortgages, credit cards, and corporate borrowing, eased to about 5.23% after the data, down from 5.25% beforehand, after touching 5.29% intraday on Tuesday, its highest since 2007, Investopedia reported. The 2-year yield slipped to about 4.86%, down from 4.88% before the release, Barron’s reported. After weeks of relentless selling, bonds finally caught a bid.
This is the final trading session of September, and the month’s scoreboard explains why this morning matters. The Dow is down 3.5% for the month and on pace to snap a five-month winning streak, while the S&P 500 has lost 0.2% and the Nasdaq has added 1.6%, Investopedia reported. The quarter looks steadier: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on pace for a second straight quarterly gain, though the Dow is set for a quarterly fall and its first monthly decline since March, Reuters reported. The 10-year yield is set to climb more than 47 basis points in September, the biggest monthly move in about two years, according to a global markets wrap. “Q3 didn’t just drop hopes of ‘lower for longer’ but doused them in scarce diesel and set fire to them,” Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said in a note cited by Reuters.
Overnight, Asia gave Wall Street a green light. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.94% while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.31%, according to Dow Jones data cited by Barron’s, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% for its first advance in three sessions, CNBC TV18 reported. Two things helped. Oil cooled off, U.S. semiconductor shares bounced overnight, and investors read President Trump’s rejection of AI regulation as a positive for tech. SoftBank Group climbed more than 6% after Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is seeking to raise at least $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation, according to Barchart.
August industrial production fell 1.7% from the prior month, against expectations of a 1.4% gain, while retail sales rose 2.7% from a year earlier, below the 3.3% forecast, Barchart reported. In China, September purchasing managers’ indexes all beat expectations: the official non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 versus 49.2 expected, while the RatingDog manufacturing and services readings hit 52.1 and 51.6, both above forecasts.
Europe opened with a bounce. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.7% to 642.69 in morning trading, though it is still headed for its first monthly decline in six, down 1.5%, and a nearly flat quarter, Reuters reported. The index faded toward flat by the afternoon, Barron’s automated market data showed. Britain’s economy grew faster than previously thought in the second quarter, France’s September inflation came in higher than expected, and Germany’s September inflation reading is due later today, Reuters reported. Glencore added 1.4% after winning approval to keep operating its Hunter Valley thermal coal project in Australia until 2045.
Commodities are cooperating. Gold futures climbed nearly 1% to about $4,215 an ounce, Investopedia reported, and Brent crude rose 1.6% in premarket trading, Barron’s automated data showed, while West Texas Intermediate held around $90.40 a barrel, Investor’s Business Daily reported. The relief has a source: Saudi Arabia has reportedly restored about half the capacity of its East-West pipeline after drone attacks, and the Trump administration ordered another release from emergency reserves, CNBC TV18 reported. Bitcoin moved up to around $85,200, Investor’s Business Daily reported.
One calm morning does not end a brutal month. But after September knocked the Dow off a five-month winning streak and pushed the 10-year yield to its highest since 2007, calm is exactly what the open needed. The bell rings at 9:30am ET.
