Friday brings the week’s main event. At 8:30am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September employment report, the single number that will set the tone for October trading, and it arrives with the bond market already on edge and the Federal Reserve watching every decimal (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Here is what to watch and why it matters.
8:30am ET: The September jobs report
Economists expect the report to show roughly 84,000 to 100,000 new jobs added in September, down sharply from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent (Investopedia, Morningstar, CMC Markets). Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month, and the average workweek is seen at 34.3 hours (Morningstar).
The stakes are unusually high because the week’s other data keeps pointing in opposite directions. Wednesday’s inflation report came in cooler than expected. Thursday’s 10-year Treasury yield touched a 24-year high near 5.35 percent anyway (Investopedia). A jobs number near 150,000 would keep the soft-landing narrative alive and the Fed’s tightening bias intact; a print near 50,000, the gloomier forecast from Capital Economics, paired with sticky inflation would revive the stagflation worries the market fears most (stocktraderweekly). Watch the August revisions as closely as the headline: a markdown of that 162,000 would change the story fast (CMC Markets).
10:00am ET: Factory orders
August factory orders land two hours after the jobs report. After Thursday’s manufacturing data showed slower growth than expected alongside rising prices, the orders number offers a second read on whether factories are expanding or just getting more expensive to run (CoinCentral).
What the number does to your money
However the report prints, it feeds directly into the cost of borrowing. The 10-year Treasury, the benchmark behind mortgage rates, auto loans, and credit card APRs, is sitting at 5.25 percent after Thursday’s 24-year high (Investopedia). A strong jobs number gives yields room to climb further, keeping borrowing costs elevated. A weak one could pull yields down, though the reason, a labor market losing steam, is the kind of help nobody asked for.
The earnings calendar goes quiet
No major companies are scheduled to report on Friday, a breather after a week that brought Micron, Accenture, McCormick, and Nike’s post-close results (Schwab Network). With earnings out of the way, macro takes the wheel: the jobs report, the 10-year yield, and oil, which closed Thursday with Brent at $102.35 (Investopedia).
The short version: Thursday was about surviving a 24-year high in yields. Friday is about finding out whether the economy underneath those yields is still hiring. Set the alarm for 8:30.
