Thursday mornings have a rhythm on Wall Street, and today the beat is data, data, data. If you want to know where the economy stands as October begins, today hands you three clean reads before lunch, plus one of the most watched earnings reports of the season after dinner. Here is your playbook, as of 8:30am CT.
First up, 8:30am ET: weekly jobless claims. Economists expect 200,000 new claims for the week ended September 26, a touch above last week’s 197,000, with continuing claims seen at 1.73 million versus 1.719 million the week before (ZeroHedge). The labor market has been the economy’s quiet strength this year, and the Fed is watching every print. A soft number would reinforce the strong-economy story that has kept Treasury yields elevated; a jump would give the bond market something new to think about.
Then the factories take the stage. At 9:45am ET, the final S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is expected to hold at 57.0 (ZeroHedge), and at 10:00am ET the ISM manufacturing index is seen at 55.0, up slightly from 54.6 in August (ZeroHedge). Both numbers sit comfortably above 50, the line between expansion and contraction, which is a genuinely encouraging sign. The fine print deserves a look, though: the S&P Global surveys showed U.S. business activity accelerating to its fastest pace since 2021 in September, but firms’ input costs jumped at the steepest rate in four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking on the back of rising oil prices (InvestingLive). Growth with a cost squeeze, in other words. Also at 10:00am ET, August construction spending is expected to come in flat after a 0.5% decline the month before (ZeroHedge).
The Fed will be talking, too. Richmond’s Tom Barkin, Boston’s Susan Collins, and Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid appear on a panel about rural economic trends at 9:05am ET, followed by Governor Christopher Waller at 10:00am ET and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 1:30pm ET (ZeroHedge). Collins recently said she supported September’s rate increase because “a somewhat more restrictive fed funds rate will help ensure that inflation durably returns to target” (ZeroHedge), so do not expect dovish surprises.
Then, after the closing bell, Nike takes the spotlight. The sportswear giant reports fiscal first-quarter results, and expectations could hardly be lower: analysts see earnings of $0.44 per share on $11.3 billion in revenue, declines of roughly 11% and 3% from a year ago (AlphaStreet). The stock has fallen 44.4% this year alone and touched its lowest levels in more than a decade this summer (Barron’s), with a record 87 million shares sold short, about 7% of the float (Barron’s). But there are glimmers: Jefferies expects Nike to beat the consensus with $11.5 billion in revenue and $0.48 per share, keeping a $75 price target and pointing to November’s investor day as a catalyst (Stocktwits). The call starts at 5:00pm ET (AlphaStreet).
One more thing to circle: Friday brings the September jobs report, the week’s main event, making Thursday’s data the final dress rehearsal (TraderFactor). What to watch next is simple: the claims number, the factory gauges, and whether Nike can finally give its believers something to cheer about.
