Good morning. Before the opening bell, here is the day’s calendar the way I would read it over coffee: not just what is happening, but why each item deserves a few minutes of your attention.
The headline act today is the Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks this morning at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum event at 6:30am ET, per Econoday’s calendar, and he is only the first voice in a week-long chorus. Ten policymaker appearances are lined up: on Tuesday, John Williams, Philip Jefferson, and Thomas Barkin; Wednesday brings Michael Barr; Thursday features Williams again alongside Beth Hammack and Anna Paulson; and Friday closes with Williams and Hammack Reuters reported.
Why it matters: last week the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years, taking the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Now markets see a 53% chance of another hike next month per the CME FedWatch tool. Every speech this week is a clue about whether that was a one-step adjustment or the start of a climb. For your wallet, this is the path of mortgage rates, credit card APRs, and auto loans over the next year. Listen for how the officials describe inflation after the summer readings disappointed, and whether anyone pushes back on the market’s odds.
On the data front, today is quieter but not empty. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index lands at 8:30am ET, followed by 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions at 11:30am ET per Econoday. One thing to know: Yom Kippur is observed through sundown Monday, which can thin out trading desks and make moves look bigger than they are. Take any midday swing with a grain of salt.
The week’s earnings headliner reports Thursday: Costco, expected to post fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $6.53 per share, up 11.2% from a year earlier, on revenue of $94.9 billion, up 10.1% FXEmpire reported. It is the only S&P 500 component above $100 billion in market cap reporting this week; the others are AutoZone, General Mills, Cintas, Paychex, and Darden Restaurants TheStreet noted. Costco’s results are really a consumer report in disguise: what shoppers are buying, and what they are skipping, tells you more about the economy than most economists’ speeches. Also on Wednesday, Meta kicks off its two-day Connect event, with updates expected on AI, AI-powered glasses, and virtual and mixed reality, and McDonald’s holds an investor day TheStreet reported.
Beyond the U.S., Thursday is the day to circle. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington for their summit, with tariffs, critical minerals, and AI on the table Miramar News reported. Tuesday brings the start of the UN General Assembly’s general debate in New York, where Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to lead his country’s delegation. North of the border, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks Monday, with traders pricing a 60% probability the bank raises rates next month Reuters reported. And globally, the September flash PMIs arrive Thursday alongside central bank decisions in Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland TheStreet reported.
A personal note to close: weeks like this can feel like drinking from a firehose. You do not have to follow all of it. If I had to pick three things for a busy person, it would be: Goolsbee’s tone today, whether the 10-year holds below 5%, and Costco’s consumer read on Thursday. Those three will tell you most of the story about where your money is headed. Have a steady Monday.
