U.S. stocks fought back from deeper losses by midday on Thursday, October 1, as the bond market finally caught its breath. The 10-year Treasury yield, which had touched its highest level since 2002 in the early hours, slipped to about 5.23 percent, giving equities room to steady on the first trading day of the fourth quarter (MarketWatch, Investopedia).
Around midday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were each shedding 0.2 percent, all off their session lows, according to FactSet data cited by MarketWatch. It was a far cry from the opening panic, when the 10-year yield had pushed to nearly 5.35 percent, a fresh 24-year high (MarketWatch, Investopedia).
The yield had climbed some 87.1 basis points over the September quarter, and the U.S. bond market just completed its worst quarter this century, as traders brace for higher-for-longer interest rates (eOption).
Why it matters
The S&P 500 undercut its 50-day moving average in afternoon trade, a technical level many traders watch as a short-term health check for the market (Investor’s Business Daily). Small caps told a slightly brighter story: the Russell 2000 reversed for a slight gain, bouncing off its 200-day moving average (Investor’s Business Daily).
Oil added to the day’s tension. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.9 percent to $92.10 a barrel, while front-month Brent crude futures gained 3.4 percent to $101.40, after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports to prioritize domestic supplies (Investopedia). Bitcoin ticked higher to around $84,300 (Investor’s Business Daily).
The day’s movers
Accenture soared nearly 18 percent after fiscal fourth-quarter results blew past estimates, with the stock on track for its largest percentage gain on record (Investor’s Business Daily, Barron’s).
Micron Technology fell 1.9 percent even though the memory chip maker posted a stellar fiscal fourth-quarter report, as investors stayed skeptical about how much longer the AI boom can drive sales (Barron’s). Lumentum jumped more than 8 percent and cleared a trendline entry, while SiTime rose nearly 6 percent and Celestica advanced more than 3 percent (Investor’s Business Daily).
Synopsys added 9.3 percent after announcing two separate chip deals with OpenAI and Amazon at its investor summit (Barron’s). Alphabet fell 1.2 percent after Google unveiled its newest AI model, Gemini 4 Argon, on Wednesday (Barron’s). McCormick reversed early gains and fell more than 3 percent despite beating third-quarter estimates with earnings of 86 cents per share on sales of $2 billion (Investor’s Business Daily).
The data picture
Thursday morning’s economic reports were mixed. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index came in at 54.5 for September, a touch below the 54.8 economists expected, while S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI read 55.9, above the 54.8 estimate (Investor’s Business Daily). Jobless claims fell for a fourth straight week, pointing to a stable labor market (CoinCentral).
What to watch next
Nike reports quarterly results after markets close today, with shares up more than 1 percent heading into the print (Investopedia). Traders will also be watching whether the 10-year yield’s midday retreat holds through the close, or whether the bond selloff resumes its push toward 5.35 percent and beyond.
