As of 8:30am CT, the American market is waking up optimistic. Dow futures were up around 1%, or roughly 500 points, with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.1%, after a softer-than-expected September jobs report lowered the odds of another Fed rate hike (Investor’s Business Daily). Before the report, Treasury yields steadied near multi-decade highs, with the 10-year around 5.236% and the 30-year near 5.620%, then the yield fell to 5.17% once the data hit (Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily).
Asia had a rougher night, and the reason was hiding in American bond yields. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2.6% on Friday, its worst one-day performance in more than six months, as traders sold tech stocks hammered by the surge in U.S. Treasury yields (Dow Jones Newswires via TradingView). Alibaba’s American depositary receipts were down 1.5% in premarket trading, with JD.com and Baidu down about 1% each. The math is simple and brutal: the 10-year yield jumped from around 4.6% to above 5.3% during the third quarter, its fastest quarterly rise in a century and the highest level in 24 years, and when the world’s borrowing benchmark moves that fast, expensive growth stocks feel the squeeze first (Dow Jones Newswires via TradingView). Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.94% overnight as well (Barron’s).
Europe looked calmer, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 0.79% and the FTSE 100 up 0.36% in afternoon trading, but the calm is covering real stress (Barron’s). The spread between French and German 10-year yields jumped to its widest since 2012 as investors worry about the progress of the French budget, and the cost of insuring French debt against default has climbed to a multiyear high (Wall Street Journal, CoinDesk). France’s borrowing costs have now overtaken those of Italy and Greece, a remarkable reversal for one of the eurozone’s core economies (CoinDesk).
Energy markets offered some relief for consumers. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate sold off nearly 4% to around $89.45, after reports that the European Union could release diesel stockpiles, with U.S. pressure mounting on Europe to act as diesel prices skyrocket (Investor’s Business Daily). Gold futures rose 0.35%, and Bitcoin traded near $86,437, up more than 2%, after Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson’s Thursday comment that the central bank needs more time before adjusting rates again (Barron’s, Barron’s). The dollar briefly rose above 102 on Thursday, an 18-month high, pushing the euro to about $1.12, its lowest since May 2025 (CoinDesk).
What to watch next: whether the French budget standoff escalates into a wider European bond selloff, whether the EU actually taps its diesel reserves, and whether the U.S. market’s morning optimism survives the first hour of trading after such a soft jobs print.
