After a week ruled by the jobs report and a Friday that flirted with a Nasdaq record, markets get something close to a breather. The coming week’s economic calendar is light, but it carries one release that could sharpen the debate over the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision: the minutes from the central bank’s September meeting.
Monday, October 5 opens with the services side of the economy. The S&P Global services PMI is expected at 58.7 versus 56.5 in August, and the ISM services index is forecast around 55.7 versus 55.4, according to consensus estimates. Both would signal continued expansion. Watch the prices-paid and employment components inside the ISM report: with Friday’s jobs report showing hiring at a crawl, any sign of services-sector price pressure would complicate the market’s newfound confidence that the Fed pauses this month.
Tuesday brings the August trade balance, expected at a deficit of roughly $89.8 billion versus $88.6 billion in July, alongside the weekly ADP employment reading and remarks from Fed officials including John Williams, Michelle Bowman, and Lorie Logan. The Treasury auctions 3-year notes the same afternoon, worth watching with the 10-year yield sitting at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%.
Wednesday, October 7 is the week’s main event. The minutes from the Fed’s September meeting drop at 2 p.m. ET, and they will show how divided policymakers were when they raised rates for the first time since 2023. Dissent, hesitation, or confidence in the minutes will move October rate-hike odds, which futures markets now put at just 23% to 24%, per the CME FedWatch tool. The same day brings the MBA mortgage application survey, the New York Fed’s September consumer inflation expectations (previously 3.6%), August consumer credit, and a 10-year note auction.
Thursday features weekly jobless claims, expected at 205,000 versus 197,000 the prior week, plus wholesale trade data and the EIA natural gas report. On the earnings front, Tilray Brands reports Thursday, and a small handful of names including PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, Constellation Brands, and Applied Digital are expected to report during the week.
Friday closes the week with the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October, expected at 48.0 versus 48.1 in September, a number that will show whether households share Wall Street’s relief. China releases September inflation data and Canada reports September jobs the same day.
The honest framing: this is the calm before the real tests. As Barron’s noted, “it will be earnings and inflation reports later this month that will likely be the next big test for stocks,” with the September CPI due October 14 and the Fed’s next decision wrapping up October 28. Next week sets the table. The meal arrives later.
